Turner Novak 🍌🧢
@TurnerNovak
The 30 most in-demand startup secondary shares in Q1 '26 (per Setter Capital):
- Anthropic hits #1, bumping out SpaceX as the most desired shares on the list.
- Five of the top six companies are big IPO candidates in the next 12-18 months. They've been absorbing a lot of investor interest and capital over the past few quarters, it will be interesting to see what happens as they list.
- Prediction markets are still hot! Polymarket and Kalshi are two of the fastest risers. Anything crypto that hasn't rebranded as prediction markets continues softening.
- Replit and Shield AI are the two other fastest risers on the list. Lovable and Cursor also move up a few spots.
- ElevenLabs debuts at #9, tied (with Shield AI) for the highest ever. OpenEvidence and Saronic also make what I think is their first ever appearance on the list.
- Perplexity, Crusoe, and Figure both sliding significantly. Anecdotally feels like I haven't seen them discussed as much recently.
One notable data point, the average last round valuation of companies on the list was $120B (up 122% YoY). This compares to the average S&P 500 company valuation of $122B. Insane how big the private markets have gotten.
941 likes 979.2K views
Open Source Intel
@Osint613
Shield AI has unveiled the X-BAT, a next-generation AI-powered stealth drone designed to operate as a “loyal wingman” in combat zones. The vertical takeoff jet can fly 2,000 nautical miles, reach 50,000 feet, and carry air-to-air missiles or electronic warfare payloads.
Powered by the company’s Hivemind AI, the X-BAT can fly autonomously without GPS or continuous communication. Priced at $27 million, it offers a low-cost alternative to the F-35.
The launch comes amid a U.S. drive to expand AI warfare capabilities under Trump’s 2025 drone initiative, which funds domestic defense tech. Shield AI, now valued at $5.3 billion, is positioning the X-BAT to challenge industry giants like Lockheed Martin.
1.2K likes 90.4K views
“Calling in a fleet of sea drones, Ukraine's navy began firing on the rig. When a nearby Russian Ka-27 helicopter landed to evacuate personnel and equipment, a Ukrainian aerial drone swooped down, exploding on contact with the aircraft…
The reconnaissance aircraft that spotted the oil rig — a long-range surveillance drone known as the "V-BAT," manufactured by the American defense firm Shield AI — has played an increasingly important role in this campaign…
Ukrainian officials say the V-BAT has helped identify the location of Russia's more expensive air defenses, such as its S-400 systems.”
@aidan_stretch
https://t.co/WPFbZTqSyK
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Air-Power | NatSec Ledger
@NatSecLedger
💯
Success in the CCA domain won't be defined by how many shiny graphics or mockups you crank out. It'll be defined by how many production representative aircraft you get into the hands of operators and testers, and how well you integrate with mature and rapidly evolving mission autonomy suites. If you can afford it, put more than one high performing team on mission autonomy (the USAF has funded 3, Shield AI, RTX/Collins and Anduril). It's the part you cannot afford to get wrong.
I've been saying this for a while now. Over the next three to five years I think we'll see a really fast iterative cycle play out in the US, where each new ACP and CCA evolution builds on the wins and the lessons from the one before it.
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