Ascend Elements

Scott Lincicome

@scottlincicome

"Battery Recycler Ascend Elements Files for Bankruptcy" https://t.co/PJX9pfElvG "The climate tech company boomed during the Biden years but has struggled amid a drop in EV interest." https://t.co/BfKGmSNbZ7

Carol

@ccahsatan

$ABAT American Battery Technology Company (ABAT) ABAT remains one of few U.S. companies vertically integrating battery recycling and lithium refining, but DOE funding loss re-introduces execution and financing risk. 1. Technology Breakthrough ABAT’s dual-platform model—closed-loop battery recycling and primary lithium extraction from claystone—remains technologically differentiated. Its proprietary hydrometallurgical process can refine spent batteries and claystone directly into battery-grade lithium hydroxide with low waste. However, DOE’s termination of one lithium-hydroxide grant introduces uncertainty around industrial-scale validation and external confidence. Proven at pilot level, but full-scale validation risk re-emerging. 2. Timing / Macro Fit U.S. battery-supply-chain policy, Inflation Reduction Act incentives, and domestic-content rules still heavily favor ABAT’s positioning. The DOE setback doesn’t change structural tailwinds; demand for domestic lithium and recycling capacity is intensifying with Tesla, GM, and LG Energy expansions. Policy and demand alignment remain exceptional. 3. Big Share in a Small Market ABAT continues to command early-mover share in U.S. lithium-ion recycling—a sub-sector still under $200 M in 2025 revenues industry-wide—but has not yet proven meaningful tonnage from its primary resource. Leader in niche, but small absolute scale and no commercial mining yet. 4. Team / Execution CEO Ryan Melsert’s Tesla-Gigafactory engineering background remains a differentiator. The company has hit major process-validation milestones and raised capital post-DOE action, signaling investor confidence. But execution now requires financing agility and multi-project management under scrutiny. Technically strong team; needs financial and legal discipline to match. 5. Delivery Capability / Productization Reno recycling plant operational; Southeast plant (DOE-funded) still under development. The DOE grant termination could delay lithium-hydroxide commercialization timelines. Without DOE co-funding, project financing must fill the gap. Delivery partially proven, but scaling exposed to funding volatility. 6. Defensibility / Moat Patented processes, DOE/FAST-41 status, and domestic-content regulatory barriers offer protection. Yet, grant loss weakens perceived federal endorsement. Competitors (Li-Cycle, Ascend Elements) have stronger balance sheets and similar tech. Still defensible via IP + permitting lead, but relative moat narrowing. 7. Founder Insight / Strategic Vision Melsert’s systems view—“both ends of the supply chain must be domestic”—remains uniquely prescient. Integrating recycling with raw-material refining is visionary, though capital intensity now clouds realization speed. Vision intact, execution risk elevated. 8. Financial Strength As of Q3 2025, ABAT held ≈ $25 M cash and continues to raise equity to replace DOE cost-share. Burn rate still high; appeal outcome unknown. Liquidity adequate short-term but fragile long-term. Financial position weakened by grant termination. 9. AI / Data Flywheel ABAT gathers process-control and yield-optimization data from recycling operations; potential for ML-based efficiency improvements remains untapped. Latent data asset, not yet leveraged. Summary Upside: If appeal succeeds or private funding bridges the DOE gap, ABAT retains first-mover advantage in domestic critical-materials independence. Downside: Grant loss + capex strain could force dilution or project delays.

Notes from Poland 🇵🇱

@notesfrompoland

US firm Ascend Elements has announced the construction of a $1.25 billion battery materials plant in Poland. It will help “make Europe independent of Asian suppliers and enable battery production without the need to import key materials”, says the company https://t.co/Dchprpnqkn

Mith

@Mith_

Just a quick heads-up @washingtonpost besides the AI nonsense at the start of your report, The New Economics of Battery Recycling, you also have a photo of a worker placing a module on some rollers with a caption that credits the location to Ascend Elements. That facility in Georgia was purchased out of bankruptcy a few weeks ago for $3 million by R3 Lithium, a company created specifically to acquire that asset. If you are going to paywall a report, perhaps making sure it is accurate first would help.

K.L

@kinglinzhuhui

Riding on a de-Sinicization narrative, 🇺🇸 Ascend Elements (AE) — which raised $1.1 billion through PPT pitches and secured $480 million in government subsidies — has filed for bankruptcy. The photo shows its supply agreement with 🇯🇵 HONDA signed on April 6, 2023 ⬇️ https://t.co/VrzAjnSACS

Andrew Cooperrider

@KYCooperrider

Beshear touts his "New Kentucky Home" idea on social media constantly. The plans for this New Kentucky involve government picking and choosing winners and loser to receive special treatment and money from the state. The problem is, Beshear isn't that good at picking long term winners and he isn't gambling with his money. Beshear in 2021 on AppHarvest - "When Toyota Motor Company set up in Scott County in the mid-1980s, few could imagine the number of jobs and the economic activity, both directly and indirectly, that would flow from that one plant. We see the same path for AppHarvest and others: investments that will grow over time into powerhouse economic engines for our state." AppHarvest would file for bankruptcy two years later, months after receiving a $50 million USDA-backed loan. Beshear in 2022 on Quadrant building a manufacturing facility in Louisville - " This investment and job creation will position Quadrant to capitalize on a burgeoning market, and I am thrilled to welcome the company’s growth in Kentucky.” Three years later and Phil Pascoe, Quadrant Magnetics President, pleads guilty to sending confidential military information to China. Charges are pending against the company itself. Beshear in 2022 on Ascend Elements receiving $480 million in federal taxpayer funds - "These grants position Ascend Elements to take their business to the next level and emphasize that leaders at the federal level – as we do in Kentucky – recognize the importance of investing in companies that are helping to drive this industry forward.” Three years later and Ascend Elements is laying off workers and canceling part of their production plans due to “changing market conditions”. Many of the companies making up Beshear's "New Kentucky Home" are headed in the same direction.