GrubMarket

Trace Cohen

@Trace_Cohen

Quick recap of the @PitchBook Q1 2025 IPO Expectations report - my longer overview coming soon. The State of VC-Backed IPOs: A Slow Recovery Ahead Despite strong public market performance over the past two years, venture capital-backed IPOs have remained sluggish, reaching their lowest levels since 2011. From 2022 to 2024, only 40-42 IPOs per year were completed, a stark contrast to the 193 in 2021. The primary barriers include high valuations, a risk-averse investor landscape, and macroeconomic uncertainty. While some notable companies—like Reddit and Astera Labs—performed well post-IPO, the broader market remains hesitant. Half of non-healthcare unicorn IPOs in 2024 priced below their last private valuation, reinforcing concerns about pricing mismatches between private and public markets. Why 2025 Could See a Moderate Rebound Several factors point toward an uptick in IPO activity in 2025: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Expected reductions could improve investor sentiment and boost valuations. Liquidity Pressures: Many late-stage startups need capital, and secondary financings remain scarce. Strong Public Market: The S&P 500 gained 23.3% in 2024, and a more favorable IPO window could emerge. However, the recovery will likely be slow. The Fed has signaled a cautious approach to rate cuts, and investor expectations have shifted toward profitability and clear paths to cash flow. Tech IPOs that once traded at 20x+ revenue multiples now struggle to sustain 6x. The Growing IPO Pipeline The lack of IPOs over the past three years has created a massive backlog of late-stage startups. Today, 601 companies meet the historical IPO benchmarks (age, capital raised, and valuation), up from 288 in 2021. AI, fintech, and healthtech dominate this list, but these sectors have also seen some of the worst valuation compression in public markets. Notable companies with high IPO probabilities include: StockX ($3.8B valuation) GrubMarket ($3.6B) Indigo ($3.95B) Zocdoc ($1.8B) Many unicorns may need to accept down rounds or secondary share sales before going public. Risks & Market Challenges Political & Regulatory Uncertainty: A new US administration and potential tariffs could introduce market volatility. LP Pressure on VCs: With distribution rates at just 6.5%, limited partners are growing impatient for liquidity. This could force some firms to push portfolio companies toward IPOs prematurely. IPO Overcrowding: If too many startups attempt to go public in the same sectors, investor appetite could thin, making it harder for individual offerings to succeed. IPO Forecast for 2025 The outlook for the first half of 2025 remains weak, with around 21 expected IPOs. However, if rate cuts materialize and the economy stays strong, H2 could see 30-40 additional IPOs, bringing the annual total to 51-61. This would be a notable improvement from the last three years but far below pre-2022 levels. The best-case scenario would be reaching the long-term average of 75 IPOs, restoring some liquidity to venture markets. However, a full recovery to 2021 levels remains unlikely in the near term. Key Takeaways for Investors & Startups VC-backed IPOs will increase in 2025 but won’t return to past highs. Down rounds and valuation cuts will be common as public market multiples remain compressed. AI, fintech, and healthtech startups dominate the IPO pipeline but face an increasingly competitive public market. Limited partners are pressuring VCs for liquidity, meaning more funds may push portfolio companies to list. Rate cuts and economic strength could drive a moderate H2 rebound, but market uncertainty persists. For startups eyeing an IPO in 2025, the bar is now higher than ever. Investors want real business fundamentals, not just growth-at-all-costs. Founders should prepare for more scrutiny on profitability, unit economics, and clear paths to cash flow—because in this new era, market euphoria alone won’t be enough.

Darian Shirazi

@darian314

Congrats Butter! Excited for the upcoming @GrubMarket IPO! @GradientVC

Hans Tung

@hanstung

Congratulations to Mike Xu and the @GrubMarket team on acquiring Good Eggs! From our first investment in 2014, Mike's unwavering grit and relentless focus have pushed the company forward. What a decade of determination! #StartupGrit

Benjamin Gordon 🇺🇸

@benjaminhgordon

Who will be the next supply chain consolidator? From 2011 to 2021, @XPOLogistics scaled up from $70M to $20B, fueled by a combination of organic growth and 18 acquisitions. The model was extremely successful. But the supply chain ecosystem remains extremely fragmented. There is plenty of room for new consolidators to emerge as winners. In the food supply chain software arena, one emerging acquiror is @GrubMarket. They have built a network model to help food suppliers automate their relationships with their customers. GrubMarket has acquired over 100 companies to date. They are expecting to exceed $2B in annualized revenue. And they just announced their latest purchase: Butter, a SaaS platform to automate food distribution. Watch this space! #logistics #supplychain #consolidation https://t.co/TV1gtQ3v33

PsudoMike 🇨🇦

@PsudoMike

San Francisco's GrubMarket just bought Vancouver's SPUD, delivering groceries since 1997, and SPUD's old owner is also backing GrubMarket's Series H. I've seen this in payments, the local team survives long enough to fund someone else's raise. Still Canadian in a year?

Matthew Silver

Chief Accounting Officer

Previously at Innovative Food Holdings · Houston, Texas, United States

Joined Apr 2026